EURUSD Trend Reversal or Pull Back?

EURUSD: Is the 15 day down move over?
Has Euro found a significant level at 1.2756, support?

Update August 19th, one month later.

The take away lesson one month later is trading with identified levels goes a far way to give insights of where price may go and the patience it takes to see it through.  To answer whether it is trend reversal or pull back is still uncertain, but identified levels are still valid and in place.   The analysis was right.

Though the chart and price action has been bullish up for all of July and most of August price is at a double top resistance level at 1.34215.  The impulse down leg of June has retraced almost 100% back up.

If price level 1.34215 (the beginning of the impulse down leg) gets broken and closed above, on the daily chart, then EURUSD may run up to 1.37000. NOTE: the impulse down leg did not produce a new lower.  The March/April lows are still in place, which are also the lows for the year, 1.27460

I need to watch for price action behaviour to determine if buyers or sellers are in control.  If buyers out number the sellers then 1.34215 may get violated and price could run up to 1.37000.  If the sellers are in control and short EURUSD in large amounts, then price will hold at 1.34215 and decline down to key support retracement levels or further.

I need to watch levels and alignment of signals all pointing in the same direction, when this happens that will be the direction price moves in sharply.

Price moved up above the “Buy ?” blue line and continued up where is slowed down a little at .786 after a slight pull back and delay it resumed up to .886 level then pulled back again but still bullish.  A double top at 1.34215 is still play.

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July 15th, 2013

Below are Daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts for EURUSD with key support, resistance, and Fibonacci levels identified.  Based on which way price break I will look for entries in that direction.

The charts with their identified levels provide me with “if then” statements allowing for quick and easy evaluation of the charts.  Now that the levels have been identified just need to check in periodically to see if they are reached and how they are reached.  Trading levels like this instead of individual bars, tick-by-tick, is a lot less stressful!

On the 4-hour chart there is a blue line labelled “Buy ?” and one labelled S2.  When price breaks and closes on either side of these lines trade in that direction.

  • If below S2 trade short and target the .618 level, S1, or a double bottom and below if move is strong impulsively.
  • If above “Buy ?” blue line then trade long targeting the recent high and or the .786 retrace level of down impulse leg and further up to a double top at 1.34162 and beyond if move is strong.

AUDUSD 4-hour chart

4 hour chart
AUDUSD
  • 4 hour chart completed an almost perfect AC=CD pattern
  • AB=CD pattern also completed very close to the fibonacci expansion 1.618 of the AB leg
  • The completion was found at the support low from May 2012
  • Blue box is critical zone, will it be resistance and come back down to at least a double bottom?  or will it break through to at least point C?