Aussie Dollar approaching May 2012 support again, will it hold?

AUDUSD is approaching strong support of 0.95821 again, will it hold or break through?
AUDUSD is approaching strong support of 0.95821 again, will it hold or break through?
  • Today’s price action had an almost .618 retracement of the current 4 hour down leg.
  • Two 4-hour bars did close above the .382 retracement levels but the second one left a pin bar just short of the .618 level
  • The short lived rally up is now followed by a move back down qualifying for a possible AB=CD completion.
  • If the AB=CD does complete it will be between the 1.272 and 1.414 Fibonacci extensions but more importantly it will mean a break below the strong support from May 2012 of 0.95821
  • If it does break through a possible completion of the AB=CD pattern will be around price level .94439
  • Will the support level of 0.95821 hold on a 3rd attempt to break through?  If it does hold and cannot break below then a the Fibonacci extension points of 1.618 aligns nicely with structure resistance for a possible short trade, around .97539

How to trade it from present price of about .96085?  This evening there is light Aussie, and USD News tonight, and tomorrow with BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaking at around 8pm EST.

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AUDUSD 4-hour chart

4 hour chart
AUDUSD
  • 4 hour chart completed an almost perfect AC=CD pattern
  • AB=CD pattern also completed very close to the fibonacci expansion 1.618 of the AB leg
  • The completion was found at the support low from May 2012
  • Blue box is critical zone, will it be resistance and come back down to at least a double bottom?  or will it break through to at least point C?