Interpret Price at Key Reference Levels Not at Tick-by-Tick Price.
Identifying key identified price levels in advance will help me understand the direction price wants to go. When looking at a chart to see what is happening or not happening I must have a frame of reference. The live bar is only useful in relation to established significant qualified levels, is price moving towards or away from a level. Chances are if it’s not going towards one level then it’s going to the other. Those levels can be support or resistance areas, higher highs, lower highs, lower lows, higher lows, and or Fibonacci retracements or extension areas.
Things to identify on a chart:
Current and recent impulse legs. Ideal impulse leg is from a LH to a LL and HL to HH with stong bars majority being of the same colour.
Fib retracement levels of impulse legs and adjusted as the leg lengthens.
Fib extension levels, drawn once a strong key fib retrace level has been hit, especially, .382 and .618, or a full retracement has occurred.
Horizontal lines at support and resistance levels.
To test this idea, below I have placed the 4-hr chart for AUDUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD with identified levels and marked areas for possible trades. I will update each of these charts after the close on Friday or if levels achieved before then.
Identifying levels and key structure areas should help the worry and uncertainty of trading, but more importantly give me defined things to look for on a chart.
Today’s price action had an almost .618 retracement of the current 4 hour down leg.
Two 4-hour bars did close above the .382 retracement levels but the second one left a pin bar just short of the .618 level
The short lived rally up is now followed by a move back down qualifying for a possible AB=CD completion.
If the AB=CD does complete it will be between the 1.272 and 1.414 Fibonacci extensions but more importantly it will mean a break below the strong support from May 2012 of 0.95821
If it does break through a possible completion of the AB=CD pattern will be around price level .94439
Will the support level of 0.95821 hold on a 3rd attempt to break through? If it does hold and cannot break below then a the Fibonacci extension points of 1.618 aligns nicely with structure resistance for a possible short trade, around .97539
How to trade it from present price of about .96085? This evening there is light Aussie, and USD News tonight, and tomorrow with BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaking at around 8pm EST.