USDCAD Dec 18th-19th

I cannot determine which way price wants to go today to close out the week.
Intraday update USDCAD:

  • The weekly VWAP level is 1.16184 and price is currently trading below it. So far today it has been tested twice holding each time.  The first bounce from it took price back down the weeks DVAL which held.
  • For most of the week price has traded inside the weeks DVA
  • The current week’s opened above last weeks value area.

The daily bar is inside of the previous two days trading range.


USDCAD after the close Thursday December 18th, 2014

  • Daily Value Area: the day opened inside the previous days value area.
  • The Fed FOMC announcement moved price up but it did not take out the high from earlier in the week, Tuesday.
  • From the open price moved sideways developing a narrow value area while inside the fixed value area.  Around 2am price moved out of the DVA and then down to the fixed VAL and then through it finding buyers near the FOMC announcement low.
  • From this low price moved up to the DVAL
  • Volume Profile: the previous day had low volume near the low of the day.  This should have alerted me to buy if and when price came into this area as the risk would be low.  Plus, the overall trend is strong to the upside. The buy target would be back up and into the DVA as the DVA was inside the fixed value area.  Targeting the DVA would have given a 20 pip winner and a 40 pip winner to the developing point of control.
  • The developing day’s Vpoc became resistance and price closed down below the developing and fixed value area.

CADJPY Week Dec 14th-19th

CADJPY Post Market Homework & Pre Market Preparation – 14th-19th


Possible Buy trade Levels: 102.00 / 101.89 – 101.34

Possible Sell trade Levels: 103.18 / 103.60

These observations are to understand the big picture in CADJPY.

Daily Bar Chart: before the open Sunday Dec 14th

  • Of the current 1362 pip strong bull run up CADJPY last week saw a 444 pip retrace down from the high put in earlier in the week.
  • Of the current up impulse leg the 38% retrace is at 101.348 which also is a potential price action support level.
    On the daily bar chart, price has rotated below the 5,10, and 21 ema lines, closing below them on Wed, Thurs, and Friday. Price may make it up to the 10 EMA and if it does that could be a high probability short trade.

Weekly Bar before the open Sunday Dec 14th

  • The one-time framing of weekly bars stopped last week.  Last weeks weekly bar engulfed the previous 3 weeks highs and lows.
  • The weekly bar closed below the 5 ema line but above the 10 (101.89), which it has not touched since the end of October. A buy trade on or near the 10 ema may be profitable.
  • The 2013 high at 101.110 was broken back in the first week of November, but it not been retested since being broken.  Buyer might be waiting for this level and it may provide price action support.
  • Price is well above last quarters high and the current quarters open.

Monthly Bar before the Open Sunday Dec 14th

  • Even though the daily bar and the weekly bar saw bearish selling last week, the monthly bar still is well above last months open though it is a down bar at present.
  • Potential target down is last years high at 101.053 which is also close to the 5 month ema line.
  • Price is well above the current years open.

USDCAD Homework & Preparation – Dec 8th

USDCAD week of Dec 8th – 12th, 2014

Post Market Homework for the week

Saturday Dec 13th, 2014.  I did a bad job this week formally doing my post market homework and pre market preparation and it reflected in my trading success or lack of it.  Here is what did happen this past week.

USDCAD Weekly VWAP Levels

  • Previous week value area: the weekly fixed value area moved up and we opened above it.  Price went into last weeks fixed value area briefly on Tuesday, other than that price traded above last weeks value area all week.
  • Developing weeks value area: Monday we traded above the developing weeks value.  Tuesday we moved into the weeks developing value area, down and through the DVAL briefly.  Price spent less than an hour inside last weeks value area before it moved up and out of it then back into the developing weeks value where it moved up and through it.  Wednesday’s price found support on the weeks developing VWAP level.  From here it moved up trading above the weeks DVAH on Thursday and Friday.

The low of the week was put in on Tuesday with no retrace as price has been strong to the upside.  New highs for the year were set on each of the 5 trading days for the week.

With the week being a strong up week, I should have been stalking longs.  Ideal long entries were available several times after break above the weeks open.  There were a couple trades from DVAL to the DVAH.  The first was on Monday though the width was not as wide at the time but price was moving up strong since last week.  Again on Tuesday, though it came midway through the RTH session and the DVAH target was not met until midway through the Wednesday RTH session.  From here price traded above the developing value for the rest of the week.

Counter trend: there were DVAH to DVAL trades,too.  The first started Monday evening with target hit early Tuesday morning.  Aside from this counter trend trading would have been high risk with low probability.

Also on from the weekly VWap, Friday’s RTH session gave a nice support level at the DVAH, this buy signal produced about 57 pips impulsively up.

Friday Daily Vwap Levels:

Friday (above, chart on right) the fixed value area moved up and we opened inside of value but just below the fixed VAH.  The open was also just above a thin volume area from the Thursday.  If price were to move into this thin area then the probability is high it would go further down.  The high of this thin area held as support on Friday and presented a low risk area to take buy trades, or destination trades for short trades taken earlier in the RTH session on a pullback up to the DVAH.

The day was choppy but a low risk sell and buy trade was available during the RTH session with well defined targets. During the early part of the RTH after price got accepted back into value a move back up to the DVAH gave a low risk sell signal with A target down to the fix VAH.

The move down gave a low risk buy signal after buyers were found at the high before the thin volume area as they moved price back into developing value.  Buying this VAL with stops below the days low and target to the DVAH or the days high produced a winner.  Part of the position would have been closed at the DVAH and part left for a runner to the days high with stops at break even, at the very least.

NOTE: on Friday price moved into the previous days value area but the current days volume profile shows it did not get accepted there.  This increases the odds that price will move up.

Of course this is all hindsight analysis but trade signals keep repeating themselves.  In the right context Buying fixed or developing VAL and Selling fixed or developing VAH presented winning trades.  To gain from these set ups, I must be honest with myself.  If it is low risk put the stop on and accept the small loss because as seen here the winners are available.  With the right risk to reward the winners can pay for the losers and grow my account.  In order for the winners to pay for the losing trades, I must allow trades time to develop and play out.  Part of letting trades sit and breath is getting ideal trade entry location.  This is why patience is needed on entries, as I must wait for price to come to my identified levels.  It is not easy to sit and wait for price to come to my levels but it is much more pleasant than sitting through a bad trade before it turns around.  Trade location is important and knowing them can only come from doing my post market homework, pre-market preparation, and adjustments to them made from market generated information.


Thursday & Wednesday’s Daily VWAP Levels

Thursday trading again shows price continuing to move up in USDCAD.  Long entries were available at the confluence area of fixed and developing value area lows plus near a volume profile low volume node from the previous day. This is a low risk area to take buy trade because if price cannot get back into accepted value and move up to the top side value area extremes then it will move down further and my stop will be close to the entry area.  The over night entry though required patience as price got accepted into value but slowly trickled down along the DVAL and down to the fixed VAL but from here it found buyers and went up.

Before the start of the RTH session all of this information would be available to me.  The key would be to see that price is trying to move up and any buy trades should have stops below the overnight low.  Overnight, after moving from the value area lows to the value area highs the pullback was stopped on the developing VWAP, but again patience was needed as it stalled there for several hours presenting misdirection signals.

Short trades at the highs would have been losing trades but with low risk if I was honest with myself.  Though, reading price behaviour properly would have shown that momentum was to the upside and the probability that the highs would hold is low.

Note: Thursday we opened inside of the previous days fixed and developing value, and the fixed value area was smaller in height.  We had value inside of value and often when this happens breakouts present continuation moves.

Thought: My entries do not (often will not) have to be this perfect as outlined here, in hindsight, but as these levels are put in place they are available to me as factual evidence.  If entries are early, I can use these now known levels to see that the direction is still biased to the upside and they help further determine safe stop areas.  I must remember stops levels are not there to say I am right, that I knew price would come to it.  Instead stops are to be used to limit the amount of loss. If price gets to a properly identified stop level and it’s qualified then chances are price will go beyond it and I don’t want to be holding positions against that move.

Price opened inside of the fixed daily value area on Wednesday after find strong buying during Tuesday’s RTH session. Looking at the previous days volume profile I would have seen a double acceptance area labelled point A and B. During Wednesday’s trading price found support at the low end of point B acceptance area.  After moving up above the developing value price came back to the earlier low for the day during overnight trading.  As price went below the DVAL and then back in a low risk buy trade was available–buy value area lows.  Stops would go below the days low or below the fixed VAL.  If price came down here then it would indicate sellers are in control and would move price down to Tuesday low of the day or more.  But because price opened inside of value and we had moved back into developing value the probability that price would move up to the DVAH and the fixed VAH were high. Another buy entry became available at the open of the RTH session as price had a small retrace close to the DVAL which now also saw a intraday support trendline at this level, which held.   The target was the second acceptance area from Tuesday, labelled point A.  Seeing this level also should have alerted me that this could likely be another destination for price.

Thought: Wednesday saw the Vwap and volume profile levels give excellent clues towards where price would go and ideal entry and target before it happened.  I should see the logic of what would happen if I buy the VAL and use my imagination to see that price can move from the value area lows to value area highs.


Post Market Homework after Tuesday Dec 9th close

Overnight price found resistance at 1.15000.  From the high price moved down 100 pips to about 1.14 where buyers stepped in for support.   The move down was sharp with almost no trading done inside of the days developing value once it went below it.  The move through the previous days value was quick with it slowing down a little at the previous days fixed VAL but price did not touch or enter the days developing value here.  This suggested the fixed VAL was not a support area, the slow down here possibly was short entered at the highs taking profits.  If the fixed VAL had no buyers then the next logical place would have been the fixed VAL from Monday which is also very near the beginning of the most recent up impulse leg.  This level held and from here price moved up and into the days developing value.

The Cumulative Delta (CD) continued moving down aligning with the down move of price today.

Note: The daily bar left a big bullish pin bar wick.  Priced touched the daily bar 5-ema and came very close to the daily 10-ema but did not touch it.  If price retraces down into today’s wick look for price to touch the 10-ema.a

Pre-market preparation for Tuesday Dec 9th.

The day opened above the previous days value and traded up to a new high for the year overnight where it found resistance and strong selling at 1.15000.  From the overnight high price traded down into the developing value and the 3am bar (London Open) poked down to the previous days fixed VAH.
Cumulative delta on the 30-minute chart continues to move down.  Look for the developing value area low to be significant level for the day.  If it holds as resistance price will keep moving down.  If price gets accepted into the developing value look for a move up.
The 7am bar has moved into the previous days value area and closed there pretty strong, the fixed VAL is in play.

Post Market Homework for Monday Dec 9th

The daily bar closed up for a 3rd consecutive day and put in a new high for the year at 1.14860.
Below is a 30-minute chart with the daily VWAP and it’s levels.  Price opened slightly above Friday value area and traded above it almost all day except for a few pokes just under Friday’s VAH.  The next bar after each poke into Friday’s value area came back into the days developing value.  Eventually buyers moved price up above the developing value area where we saw initiative buying.  The pullback was to the DVAH and the day closed near the days high.  The day’s profile shows acceptance above the value areas.

The path of least resistance today was up.  Buying the developing VAL and the previous days VAH would have produced winning trades. From 6:30am to 9:00am price was in a balanced bracket of about 18 pips but eventually broke to the upside and one time framed up to the high of the day.  The pullback from the high came right to the developing Vwap which held nicely.

The overnight was set at 3am but once that was taken out it became support later in the day.

Of note price was moving up but the Cumulative Delta was moving down.  This divergence was very evident and I don’t know how to interpret it.  We’re nearing the psychological round number of 1.1500

Monthly & Weekly Bars as of Dec 8th

The monthly USDCAD bars have been one-time framing up since July 2014.  At present, price is at the years high and broke last month high of about 1.14660.  The big psychological level of 1.15 is in sight.  The months low was put in on the first trading day of the month at 1.13144 and at present we are trading about the months open of 1.14290

The Weekly bars show a strong bullish move up as the 5 and 10 EMA lines are pointing up and have not touched each other since they crossed up back in July.  So far this week, price has been trading above the 5 EMA and has not touched it, yet.  On this chart a significant support area is 1.12706 the high from March 2014. The weekly 5 and 10 EMA levels should also present support with the 5 EMA a potential target for any short trades.

The daily bar chart show price moving up sharply over the last 3 trading days including today.  For most of November price was in a down channel but closed out the month up breaking the down resistance trend line.  Price looks like it is developing a new balance area.  The 5,10, and 21 EMA lines are all aligned up with the 5 and 10 serving as support each time they have been touched since the down channel break.

At the close of today’s trading day, I must update again with Value Area levels for intraday trading to prepare me for tomorrow and the remainder of the week.  Done after close of Monday, posted above.

 

Developing A Trading Plan – Part 2

Time periods and tools used: VWAP / Volume Profile

In part 1, I talked about the importance of doing post market analysis.  Through this homework, I can see factually how market logic played out using my tools. I also talked about doing pre-market preparation.  Pre-market prep is important because this is where I must use what happened (homework) to develop a plan of where the key reference levels are and plan what to do there; buy, sell or monitor for more insight, or look for follow through.

My post market homework and pre-market preparation I must consistently use the following tools:

  • Vwap with it’s standard deviation levels.  These levels produce the value area highs and lows.  There are 6 key levels:
    developing Vwap / VAH / VAL, and the fixed Vwap / VAH / VAL.

    • With in the VWAP levels I must be mindful whether price is inside or outside of value for both the developing and fixed value areas.
  • Volume profile with strong attention to the VPOC, the extremes, low and high volume areas.

*I will focus on using the VWAP and Profile tools on the day and week time frames.

  • The previous days and weeks high, lows, and open.
  • Fib retracement and extension levels for the previous day, week, and impulse legs with in these periods.

At times, I will look at the Cumulative Delta and use trend lines to help further read, interpret, and understand what is happening on the charts.  Though the drawing of trend lines should be done during post market home work and pre market preparation so that these levels are already available during trading hours.

Included equally in my analysis is the daily candlestick bars and the activity on this chart.  Here I will use the 5,10, and 21 EMA lines.  I will identify bracket balanced areas.  This chart will be the starting point for everything I do.

In addition, I must be aware of the activity higher time frame charts like the weekly and monthly bars.  On these charts I will also look at VWAP and Profiles but must understand that I am not trading on these levels.  They are only to be used as guides to see the whole market and bigger picture.  They can also be used to evaluate the boundary limits of moves starting intraday.

Developing A Trading Plan – Part 1

Trading Preparation:

What I should be looking for & looking at

Part 1  | Part 2

Trading is not easy, it requires a lot of focused dedication.  It is easy to spend a lot of time looking at charts without gaining any useful information, at least for me it is.  I need to use my time more efficiently.

I must do my post market homework in an efficient formatted way, otherwise I am wasting time not making use of information on the charts and tools used.

I must have a system for pre-market analysis otherwise executing trades during the live market is just guessing and hoping to be right, or worse gambling without regard to un-calculated risk exposure.

I need to develop a better routine to post market review and pre-market preparation.  Just looking at the charts, marking it up with levels and reference points is not enough.  I need to have a consistent method and reason for choosing levels and selecting key reference points.  If I cannot explain why I select these areas and their relevance then I am just wasting time.  Moreover, explaining what happened alone without hypothesizing how it will affect future activity adds no value to me finding and executing trades.

The purpose of me trading and doing all of this is to grow my account and earn an income.  I must become more structured.  I can only achieve this through better more efficient post market homework and pre-market preparation.

First: Post market homework

After the market has closed all accessible information is known, this should be the easy part.  Here I am explaining what happened and why it happened.  It’s hindsight analysis but important for me to understand the context of the day.  For example, why did sellers sell the high and buyers buy the low based off the tolls I use.  The below chart discusses the logic of what happened in hindsight.

 

 

In the above chart, I purposely leave out the price and symbol.  It does not matter what it is, price behaves and gets the same reaction.

Part 2

Top-Down Look at USDCAD, July 2014

USDCAD Monthly Candlestick Chart

Below, the chart on the left is a monthly chart, it requires a lot of patience.  I won’t be taking position from this chart, but it can help to determine major support, resistance, and trend direction along with targets.

Using a monthly chart requires a lot of patience, it takes time to realize a pattern or set up and waiting for it to be confirmed.  A bar is not complete until a month is over.

The horizontal support and resistance line marked by the orange dash line are valid until the closest line to price is taken out.  These levels serve as boundaries of where to trade to and where to trade from.

USDCAD Weekly Candlestick Chart

Above, the chart on the right is a weekly chart.  It’s current trend indicate up.  It has recently taken out a resistance level at 1.06484 with price returning to it.  It should hold as support now, would have been a good place to look for Long trades on lower time line, like the daily chart.

If the up trend holds and continues the next levels of resistance might be just below 1.13 and then 1.17

If the up trend cannot hold then look for support around 1.05, 1.03 and then down to even at par.

It takes 5 days to create a weekly candlestick so time is needed to see the formation and confirmation of a pattern.  Great care and patience is needed.

I can use the monthly and weekly chart to identify strong reliable support and resistance levels.  These levels can be used as targets to exit trades and target for entering trades.  The timing can be assisted through the lower time line charts like the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts.

Upcoming Fundamental report

On July 18th Core CPI m/m will be released.

Recent Fundamental News

July 16th Bank of Canada, as expected, left rate unchanged at 1.0%.  The last rate change was an increase from0.75% to the current 1.0% in September 2010.

USD FOMC Fund rate was left unchanged June 18th.  The last time the Fed rate was changed December 2008.

USD NFP report last release July 3rd, with the release alternating between above and below forecasted number.

 

Review and Preparation ESH4 January 20th-24th, 2014

Notes: Post market close, Thursday.

  • The first chart below shows the daily bars for ESH4 at the end of trading on Thursday.  Thursday was a big down day. From the open of the RTH session price in ES moved down.  Late in the day,  starting around 2pm price rallied up.
  • Before the late rally up, the daily bar set new lows for the week and it closed below the earlier low from Tuesday.  The low of Tuesday has been violated and broken with Thursday closing below it.
  • However, the low was at an earlier support level just above 1811, which is just above previous resistance now support and the 38% of the most recent impulse up leg.
  • If the 38 fib cannot hold look for support at previous resistance at 1806 or lower to the 50% fib at 1800.
  • The interim support level, at around 1830, that held for 7 + trading days was also broken as the day closed below it.
  • Careful with rallies above 1830 as a new high above 1846 would have to be established to confirm a up trend continuation, though a down trend has not been confirmed.

Preparing for the Thursday RTH open

  • Over night session was down, look for the big 5 minute volume bar within the first 30 minutes to 1  hour of RTH open, that should give an indication toward direction.
  • Support is around 1826, but if price get there then the interim support would be violated maybe look for lower support at 1817 and even down to 1810 though 1810 would be a big move down for one day.
  • Overnight volume was 280,000 and price was sharply down off strong resistance area, look for short trades.

Reviewing up to the end of Tuesday Jan 21st trading day in preparation for Wednesday trading

Review and observation before RTH open Wednesday:

  • Overnight high 1841.25 which happened at around 12:00 am.  The overnight low 1834.75 around 6 am.  Volume was 171,000

Review and observation after Tuesday’s close:

  • The open of RTH at 9:30am EST started a down move about 16 points down.  Support was found near Friday and Monday’s low about 1827.
  • From the low price moved back up sharply up almost 13 points and closed the daily bar white and up.
  • If the interim support around 1828 get broken look for 1809 to possibly be next area of support.  However, do keep in mind 1809 was a new low breaking previous interim support last week.
  • Watch for reaction off the resistance area between 1841 to about 1846.  If price get above here wait for the daily bar to close for full confirmation of a possible move further up.  1852 is a 1.618 fib extension level, may be resistance with possible sellers there?

Monday is a holiday in the US so expect the markets to be inactive with little to no volume.

With little going on Monday, here is a quick look back at the 2013 on the weekly chart.

ESH4 Level’s for January 13th – 17th, 2014

What to look for next week (Jan 20th-24th):

Look at price behaviour near the interim support area of about 1829 and resistance near 1845 or so.  Insights can be gained at these support and resistance level.  If price moves to one and it holds look for it to move to the other.  If one gets broken look for continuation.  Monday will be a holiday in US.

Notes to finish off the week Jan 13th – 17th:

  • The last trading day of 2013 was Tues Dec 31st and the high for the year and the all time high was set then at 1846.50.  Since then, price on the S&P E-mini has found balance.
  • To open the new year price moved down from the high down trading as lows as 1809.50.  On Monday Price moved sharply down closing below the previous weeks low breaking interim structure.  Then Tuesday and Wednesday were up days taking out Monday high.
  • To close the week Thursday and Friday moved sideways finding resistance near Wednesdays high near 1843 well above Monday and Tuesday’s low around the 1813 area.

Preparing for Friday Jan 17th

Preparing for Thursday Jan 16th

Reviewing daily chart from what happened so far for the week and what may happen today

  • Wednesday’s price continued rallying up.  There was little to no down pressure as price opened and moved mostly up.
  • However, the close was below last weeks high.
  • 1842 to about 1847 might be resistance area, do not long in this area.  If do be careful with stops.
  • Volume point of control (high value area) is about 1831.50, this could be a support level, careful with trading in this area.

Review 1-hour chart from Wednesday in preparation for Thursday

  • Previous day’s high (PDH) is 1845.75 and previous day’s low (PDL) 1831.50 Yesterday (Wed) set a new high for the week at 1845.75
  • Note Monday’s high (Mo H) is 1838.25, may either serve at support or resistance.

Preparing for Wednesday Jan 15th

Daily chart notes

  • Building from Monday which closed below last weeks lows, Tuesday’s price bar found support at Mondays close and then rallied up, but did not make it up to Monday’s high.
  • Be careful of Tuesday’s up day, it was an inside up bar day.  It did not reach Monday’s low or high.
  • Look for resistance at 1840 and then up to 1847 last week (and the all time) high.
  • The support area is around 1811.25 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent impulse leg.
  • Note the bigger up impulse leg has a 38.2% retrace level at 1802.50
  • Tuesday up move was on volume of 1.37m during the RTH session.  Monday’s down move was on 1.56m volume during RTH.
  • Tuesday’s up move started around 3am EST, but really moved from the 9:30am EST open.  The 10am bar just opened and moved up, it had no down wick.

1-hour chart notes

  • Overnight action continued the rally up.  On the RTH open price moved up to Mondays high. do not short on highs until it is taken out.
  • Previous days high (PDH) is 1834.25, possible support.  8am hour bounced off it.
  • Overnight volume was 170,000 about normal.  Tuesday’s RTH volume was 1.37m, normal.

Preparing for Tuesday Jan 14th

  • Posting chart late, after market opened and Euro session closed.
  • On Monday Jan 13th, price on the ES touched the 38.2% fib retracement level of the most recent up impulse leg and then closed above the 38.2 level
  • However, the close was below the low from last week, suggesting a break of last weeks support
  • Until the 38.2% level is broken at or around this level I should look for long trades
  • Look for resistance around  Thursday and Friday’s lows

The purpose of these posts and chart images is to help me develop and strengthen my pre and post market review and preparation for the upcoming trading day.  It should also serve to help me better understand the market and guide me to see and know the nuances.  I believe if I make this a habit it will only help me become a better trader.

If I take the time to update these charts for the blog then it provides accountability for me to correctly identify levels on my working charts.

What did not happen is insightful, too

In Forex trading, when studying price action:

It’s not only about what happened, what did not happen is insightful, too

When I look at the charts it is easy to only focus on what happened, but often there is invaluable insights in what did not happen.

Only focusing on what happened may limit my ability to really read what is happening.  Here is a quick video that may assist in illustrating my point.  Then below is some chart examples.

Here are some price examples from the chart of what happens when I can identify where price does not go.

Understanding the relationship between where price does go and does NOT go will help in placing stops and limits.  Trading levels instead of individual bars and time periods will also make me a more patient trader allowing to filter out the noise.

Where to draw Horizontal Lines and why? Part 3

Using reaction at price levels to determine price direction.

Support and Resistance Trading.  Part 3.  

Part 1 of this case study showed how I choose support and resistance price levels using red horizontal lines.  Part 2 of the case study I discussed how I can use the levels to determine trading direction, where to enter, place limits and stops.  Here in part 3, I will continue to discuss the clues provided by price action for USDCAD during Q1 2013.

Once price chooses a direction, I must remain focused and watch closely for clues suggesting the move will continue, stop and or reverse.  Stop and or stalling, at a level, in itself, is not enough to suggest the move is over.  The clues of continuation or reversals come from price behaviour at structure levels: making or failing to make new HH or LL, putting in new HL or LH.  All of this helps to define the trend direction and it’s strengths.  In addition, I like to use Fibonacci retracement and extension levels. 

Note: 1.00000 is a psychological big number, it can be expected to see natural resistance around it.  So too is 1.01000 but to a lesser extent.  Careful with trading at these levels and be wary of false breaks though once a side is chosen the moves can be significant.

The chart below brings in my use of Fibonacci retracement levels when they align with horizontal lines. 

The second chart brings in EMA lines, I like to look at the charts in this order.  First identify levels, then bring in Fibonacci levels and then EMA lines.