USDCAD Dec 18th-19th

I cannot determine which way price wants to go today to close out the week.
Intraday update USDCAD:

  • The weekly VWAP level is 1.16184 and price is currently trading below it. So far today it has been tested twice holding each time.  The first bounce from it took price back down the weeks DVAL which held.
  • For most of the week price has traded inside the weeks DVA
  • The current week’s opened above last weeks value area.

The daily bar is inside of the previous two days trading range.


USDCAD after the close Thursday December 18th, 2014

  • Daily Value Area: the day opened inside the previous days value area.
  • The Fed FOMC announcement moved price up but it did not take out the high from earlier in the week, Tuesday.
  • From the open price moved sideways developing a narrow value area while inside the fixed value area.  Around 2am price moved out of the DVA and then down to the fixed VAL and then through it finding buyers near the FOMC announcement low.
  • From this low price moved up to the DVAL
  • Volume Profile: the previous day had low volume near the low of the day.  This should have alerted me to buy if and when price came into this area as the risk would be low.  Plus, the overall trend is strong to the upside. The buy target would be back up and into the DVA as the DVA was inside the fixed value area.  Targeting the DVA would have given a 20 pip winner and a 40 pip winner to the developing point of control.
  • The developing day’s Vpoc became resistance and price closed down below the developing and fixed value area.
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