Top-Down Look at USDCAD, July 2014

USDCAD Monthly Candlestick Chart

Below, the chart on the left is a monthly chart, it requires a lot of patience.  I won’t be taking position from this chart, but it can help to determine major support, resistance, and trend direction along with targets.

Using a monthly chart requires a lot of patience, it takes time to realize a pattern or set up and waiting for it to be confirmed.  A bar is not complete until a month is over.

The horizontal support and resistance line marked by the orange dash line are valid until the closest line to price is taken out.  These levels serve as boundaries of where to trade to and where to trade from.

USDCAD Weekly Candlestick Chart

Above, the chart on the right is a weekly chart.  It’s current trend indicate up.  It has recently taken out a resistance level at 1.06484 with price returning to it.  It should hold as support now, would have been a good place to look for Long trades on lower time line, like the daily chart.

If the up trend holds and continues the next levels of resistance might be just below 1.13 and then 1.17

If the up trend cannot hold then look for support around 1.05, 1.03 and then down to even at par.

It takes 5 days to create a weekly candlestick so time is needed to see the formation and confirmation of a pattern.  Great care and patience is needed.

I can use the monthly and weekly chart to identify strong reliable support and resistance levels.  These levels can be used as targets to exit trades and target for entering trades.  The timing can be assisted through the lower time line charts like the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts.

Upcoming Fundamental report

On July 18th Core CPI m/m will be released.

Recent Fundamental News

July 16th Bank of Canada, as expected, left rate unchanged at 1.0%.  The last rate change was an increase from0.75% to the current 1.0% in September 2010.

USD FOMC Fund rate was left unchanged June 18th.  The last time the Fed rate was changed December 2008.

USD NFP report last release July 3rd, with the release alternating between above and below forecasted number.