Walked away, took a break and Re-focused

Thursday July 11th

After yesterday missed opportunity, I took a break.  When I returned to the computer, I was patient until I got a favourable entry.  This was not an easy, I wanted to enter earlier but thankfully waited.  I kept waiting because price was not showing any signs of finding a bottom support and none were present.

I know capital preservation is far more important than anything else, but I should have let my trade run it’s course yesterday.  Assuming my entry has some thought and a systematic explanation then either stop or limit would get hit.  However, I am glad I walked away and took a break to collect myself as my emotions were taking over.  It worked and this morning I was more patient and controlled.  My emotions were not in control, anymore, I was and it allowed me to execute a high probability low risk trade.

  • I don’t trade the 5 minute chart a lot but went to it to find a buy signal after price came into yesterday’s low.
  • I took a long entry around 9am EST but it was a guess not systematic, so I quickly exited just above break even.  Price had not broken any structure or the 21-ema to the upside and not on a significant support level.
  • After exiting, thankfully, thought if price gets close to the low from yesterday I would look for buying pressure.
  • The 11:20am EST 5-minute bar broke through yesterday (Wednesday’s) low impulsively but the following bar retraced back up impulsively closing above the preceding down IB giving a potential buy signal.
  • I waited for the 15-minute bar to close and it left a bullish pin bar.
  • After seeing the low hold (though, only on 5 and 15-minute chart) I took  a long entry and then another after a little more thought.
  • I placed quick small stops just below the bull pin bar with modest target of 25 and 30 pip limits.
  • It took a couple of hours before limits were hit and stops were never threatened.
  • I was not at the computer when limits hit which may have been a good thing.  If I were at the computer maybe I would have let the second entry go longer but I am happy with achieving targets and letting the trade go as planned.
  • I also noticed a mirror symmetry pattern forming which allowed me to wait for price to fall further.  It also allowed me to see the probability that the down move may terminate at the significant low from yesterday.

Wednesday Update

I had it right but lost sight, got scared off, closing for break even just before price takes off to targets. 
Why?  Impatient?  Inexperience?  Lack of confidence?  Afraid to lose?

FOMC Minutes release at 2pm EST today.  This produced some price swing which has left me unsure.  However, the swings have remained with an identified range.  Possibly, need to look at higher time line for more direction in conjunction of the time lines.

I need to re-focus and move forward!  Now that price has broken resistance look for pull backs to get in LONG, again.

Once again I trade with the news and tried to interpret the news it and failed.

First chart, 1-hour chart

  • Maybe I was a little to quick to exit the trade for break even but it had move a bit against me almost approaching stops.  Stops were below the short term fib point A.  And, from past experience price volatility between 5pm – 7/8pm EST is almost inconsistent.  Sometimes capital preservation is more important than being right.
  • It is important to note, though price has been volatile it has been so within identified levels.  I need to wait until price breaks these levels and then evaluate accordingly.
  • I have two Fibonacci retracement levels drawn with two different starting point but the same ending point B.  The smaller fib did not have a 100% retrace (identified support low was not breached and or broken).  I had the right idea but lost sight, inexperience?  Lack of confidence?  Afraid to lose?
  • The low before rallying up also ended at an identified fibonacci extension 1.618 level.  I should have not been so quick to close for break even!  I had it right, yet made no money!

I NEED TO IMPROVE MY TRADE MANAGEMENT!  I COULD HAVE CLOSED PARTIAL LOTS.  DID NOT HAVE TO EXIT ALL POSITIONS.  SHOULD HAVE ADJUSTED STOPS AND LEFT TRADE OPEN.  I NEED TO LET MY WINNERS RUN SO THEY CAN PAY FOR THE LOSING ONES.

Second chart, 4-hour chart

  • All last week and coming out of last week I thought NZDUSD is rotating for an up rally.  It did!  I waited patiently for confirmation and identified correctly pull back support levels.
  • After breaking structure to the upside, priced pulled back to an identified structure support level.  I also said I would wait until the 1pm and 5pm EST 4-hour bars were closed to determine if the level would hold.  It did, I was right and still made no money.  I have to learn to read volatility, see how price reacts to levels.  It is best to trade from a level than to a level.

11am EST Wednesday July 10th

NZDUSD has moved up and now dropping back, is this the pull back to get in long or does it have more to go down?

  • Resistance levels has held, blue box at top.  Price has broken the 21 ema on the 1-hour chart and some support levels.  The Fib .382 and .618 levels do not yet show that they will hold.
  • I have drawn two different fib retracements both having the same B point but differing A points.  There was confluence at the between the two with the .382 and .618 aliging equally.
  • Took a long there but did not like the rhythm of price and quickly exited.  Would need to see some interim structure levels broken to the upside before considering that the levels will hold.

Price, as of time of typing, on the 4-hour chart is now below the 21 ema.  Will wait to see where it closes at 1pm EST and then the 5pm EST bar, as well.

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