Tracking price action on the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts for the trading week
June 10th -14th, 2013
Thursday update EURUSD:
- Price still moving sharply up.
- Any move down would be a pull back until price has a full break of structure and rotates below the 21 ema the up trend will continue.
Tuesday’s EURUSD Trades
- UPDATE: the third trade got stopped out over night for a 20 pip loss. Stop was poorly placed. It should have either been moved to break even or the swing low on the blue (chart below). Price dropped down to my stop and turned immediately and rallied up over 80+ pips which would have easily hit my target of 50 pips.
- First trade: after price came down and broke structure (break below, close below) to the down side on both the 1-hour and 15 minute charts I decided to take a short trade off the 21 EMA line on the 15-minute chart. The entries are at 1S with stops at the red line.
- I originally had stops above the recent high but did not like the rhythm of price and when I saw price coming back to test the 15-minute 21 EMA I moved it down to the most recent swing lower high.
- I thought if price is above the 21 EMA on both the 1 hour and 4-hour chart so it may not be a good resistance on the 15-minute chart plus, the daily and 4-hour charts are still trending up. By lowering the stop I got stopped out, but for a lot less than I would have if not adjusted.
- There were good reasons to adjust the stop as price should have moved further down after breaking structure and if it came back to this level then it would suggest it has more to go up, against me.
- Second trade was a long trade right after being stopped out short. This was a quick scalp and quickly recovered some of the losses from the earlier stop out. I was aggressive with the positive stop here as I thought this was going to be the next move up and price would not come back, but it did.
- When it came back further down after setting new highs I was a little confused as to where price may want to go.
- However after watching it play out from about from 10:30am to 2:15 pm EST I decided to take a long trade which is still positive at the time of writing, up about 25 pips.
- I took the long trade because the pull back down of price did not go where it should have if price was going to bounce down from Resistance. As the 21 EMA kept holding on all time lines and no new lower low being set plus the daily and 4-hour charts looking bullish, I decided to go long.
- I am targeting 50 pips (1.33393, which is a 1.272 fib extension level) with about a 22 pip stop level. The stop is just below an up impulsive bar. Though, I will watch if price breaks the 21 ema and maybe close for positive or break even is needed. There is room between the break even point and the 21 ema to adjust accordingly.
Tuesday June 11th, 11:00am EST. Uncertain of trade signal but biased to upside
- The Resistance level of 1.33081 is still holding. The 10am EST 1 hour bar broke above but closed well below it.
- Price may move until it finds support either at 1.3180 or even lower at the daily retrace of .382 level (1.31100)
- Look for a break below close below yellow to confirm further move down.
Monday June 10th
- As of Monday 10:00am no clear signal though looks like price is forming a shelf on 1.31962
- Look for price to rally up from here or break below. Watch for further signals.
- Weekly chart; last week weekly chart closed up but below the lower high resistance set from the week of April 27th but
- Daily chart; last weeks Thursday daily bar closed above the high of the lower high from from week of April 27th.
- On 4 -hour chart identify Thursdays highs and lows as Price may remain within this range
- Expect a pullback before a continuation Upward. Support may be found around 1.30741 with possible resistance around 1.34